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RAS WV-Sen: Manchin 53 Capito 39

by: Clem Guttata

Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 10:42:00 AM EDT


By Clem Guttata

If you want to know why Joe Manchin is eager to run for Senate as soon as possible, look no further than the results of this Rasmussen poll released today:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia, taken Thursday night, shows Manchin with 53% support, while Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito earns 39% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

If former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland is his GOP rival, Manchin captures 65% voter support. Ireland picks up 26%. Three percent (3%) again like some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are undecided.

Yet while 77% of the state's voters approve of the job Manchin is doing as governor, he would be running in a challenging political environment for any Democratic candidate.

Only 35% of voters in the state approve of how President Obama is doing his job, while 64% disapprove. This is a much higher rate of disapproval than is found in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Now, I take this all with a giant grain of salt as Rasmussen has rated poorly among all of the pollsters. But, they generally have a strong Republican bias, so if this is Manchin's floor, that's really saying something.

It's too bad they didn't poll any other Democrats. It would be nice to know how someone like Rep. Rahall matched up across the state vs. Capito, if for no other reason to get a better pulse of Dem/Rep party strength independent of Manchin's personal position as incumbent Gov.

Clem Guttata :: RAS WV-Sen: Manchin 53 Capito 39
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Governor's election in 2011? (4.00 / 1)
WV Constitution, Article VII, Section 16:

Whenever a vacancy shall occur in the office of governor before the first three years of the term shall have expired, a new election for governor shall take place to fill the vacancy.

Another interesting scenario... if Earl Ray Tomblin is elected in 2011, he could run in 2012 and would not be eligible to run in 2016. See Article VII, Section 4:

A person who has been elected or who has served as governor during all or any part of two consecutive terms shall be ineligible for the office of governor during any part of the term immediately following the second of the two consecutive terms.


If Manchin runs in Nov 2010 and wins he wouldn't have (0.00 / 0)
to leave the governor's office until Jan. right?  So there would be a year left of his term??  We're going to need some kind of chart to keep track.

[ Parent ]
Maybe (0.00 / 0)
It really all depends on the circumstances of nominating the candidates and the general, but if we elect the person to fill the term in Nov., then I don't think the winner would have to wait until Jan. to take over because he would be filling an unexpired term.  

[ Parent ]
Gotcha, so many twists and turns. (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Correct (0.00 / 0)
If a special election for U.S. Senate is held in November 2010, the winner would be seated in the U.S. Senate immediately following certification of such an election.

Jennings Randolph was seated on November 5, 1958 for having won the special election following the death of Senator Neely.

Because of 2010 special elections in Colorado, Illinois, New York, and Delaware, it is entirely conceivable that those winners would be seated immediately. For example, I seriously doubt that Mike Castle (R-Delaware) will be forced to wait until January to be seated. The same could be said of Ginnoulias in Illinois.


[ Parent ]
Jan. 2012 (0.00 / 0)
If the Governor resigns, dies, or is impeached prior to January 2012, a special is required.

[ Parent ]
Yeah (0.00 / 0)
This'll put the kibosh on Capito running. I doubt she would interested in running for a seat where she starts out with this type of deficit. You never know for sure what's gonna happen between now and election day.  

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