Vulnerable Republican Shelley Moore Capito not challenging Sen. Rockefeller

by: Clem Guttata

Thu May 10, 2007 at 16:10:12 PM EDT

Here's the story:Capito passes on bid for Senate; GOP eyes turn to Ireland, Raese

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) has again passed on a Senate bid and will announce later this year or in early 2008 that she is running for reelection to the House, her spokesman confirmed yesterday.

Republican eyes now turn to Secretary of State Betty Ireland and 2006 Senate nominee John Raese, who faced Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) in 1984 and who some say is girding for a rematch.

Capito, a fourth-term House member, has been Republicans' top pick for West Virginia's two Democratic-held Senate seats in the last two cycles. In 2006, she passed on challenging Sen. Robert Byrd (D).

As it stands, she will stick with the House and could face her most serious reelection challenge, as state Sen. John Unger (D) is weighing a run at her seat.

"She's been preparing to run for her fifth term since Nov. 8 of last year," said Capito spokesman Jordan Stoick, who added that the thought of running to represent the entire state "at some point is appealing to her. But right now, her heart and dedication are with her constituents in the 2nd district."

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is again targeting West Virginia as a red state with a Democratic senator after failing to make a competitive race in the state in 2006.

[snip]

Capito is being targeted by national Democrats this cycle despite a strong reelection record.

Here's a reaction from our friends at MyDD:  Senate Republicans Suffer Another Recruitment Failure

Update from Carnacki: We predicted something like this on Monday. Perhaps Capito read our post, The weakness of the GOP bench:

Meanwhile, the West Virginia Republicans are going to have to make a decision. Either offer up Capito as a sacrificial challenger to Senator Jay Rockefeller so that it appears they have a legitimate candidate (unlike what's his name? against Senator Byrd in '06) or else they're going to have to run yet another no-name against him, which will free up Democratic campaign contributions for other races. Hoppy Kercheval is reporting that Secretary of State Betty Ireland, the only Republican holding a statewide office that has any name recognition, apparently is going to not seek reelection for her post to run for state senator. So Capito either has to challenge Rockefeller for the Senate like her Republican handlers want her to do or she'll have to run an increasingly uphill re-election bid against Unger or Barth.

I'd like to just point out that this from the MyDD comments:

"Ireland won by only 4 points in 2004 in a pseudo-open seat (a 90 year old former Secretary of State ran for his old job). Don't think she has a chance in hell."] That said, Rockefeller comes in to his reelection bid with serious strengths that could potentially overwhelm almost any Republican challenger, having a wealth of experience, name recognition and good will built up from his four terms as Senator and two terms as Governor, as well as a large reserve of personal finances (estimated at an upwards of $100 million), which he has been willing to tap into in close elections in the past.